There’s No Crying in Trading!

by | Jun 15, 2025 | Chart of the Week Past

In this Educational Chart of the Week Below,  

We Review: A Great Setup - I Thought So - That Vanished.

Just like learning any other profession, becoming skilled at trading comes with its fair share of challenges. One of the toughest to accept is when a textbook setup—one that has historically led to highly profitable trades—completely falls apart.

Sure, unexpected outcomes happen in all areas of life. Bad weather on your wedding day, or worse, your fishing trip 😄—those are disappointing, too.

But with trading, the emotional impact can hit differently. Why? Because money is involved, and our expectations are often tied directly to outcomes we believe we can predict or control.

But the truth is, we can't control everything, especially the news or market reactions. Learning to accept that is part of becoming a self-reliant trader.

Below is a recent example: a setup that had all the hallmarks of a high-probability winner. I believed it had serious potential for a windfall profit.

It didn’t result in a loss, fortunately, but a news event completely invalidated the pattern, and the opportunity vanished.

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We emphasized that individual concepts alone are insufficient as trading strategies and demonstrated how to combine them to form a comprehensive trading plan that yields effective MTS trading strategies.

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There is No Crying in Trading!

The chart above displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which we regularly review in our Master Trader sessions for educational and informational purposes.

Last week, in the Advisory Swing and Options letter, I outlined two key scenarios:

A move above Friday’s high would signal momentum toward the next upside target near 44,000.

A move below Thursday’s low would suggest the prior advance had failed, opening the door to a test of major support.

We got the upside trigger on Wednesday with a breakout above Friday’s high, but it was quickly rejected.

Then Thursday gave us a strong turnaround day, hinting that the launch higher was still on the table. If the Dow could clear Wednesday’s high, I was anticipating a high-probability move—a potential “payday” as prices accelerated.

But overnight, geopolitical news hit: reports of Israel bombing Iran sent oil prices sharply higher and pushed equity markets lower. That overnight risk derailed the setup.

Adding to the Dow’s weakness, Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) sold off hard on news that some companies are issuing their own stablecoins, potentially bypassing traditional credit card networks and their fees. These components dragged further on the index.

By Friday, the Dow had gapped below multiple recent lows and was unable to participate in the initial recovery seen in other indices. This relative weakness stood out. It closed below both its 20- and 200-day moving averages—a technical red flag.

While the Dow remains in a daily uptrend, Friday’s bearish action shifts the near-term bias lower. With the weekly trend still down, it increases the odds that the first level of major support (MS) will not hold.

Unfortunately, this is another example of how news flow continues to drive markets unpredictably. We’re all feeling the fatigue of headline-driven volatility, but it doesn’t look like that theme is going away anytime soon.

Time to move on, no crying, the next trade setup is coming!

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Happy trading!  If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail Greg Capra at Greg@mastertrader.com or Dan Gibby at Dan@mastertrader.com