Core Teaching: What Hasn't Changed in 25 Years
Human Nature as the Constant
- Markets have transitioned from fractional pricing to decimals, from desks to phones, and now to AI — but the underlying emotional drivers are identical to those behind the tulip bubble and every market cycle since.
- The most persistent trader mistake observed over 25 years: lack of money management and failure to adhere to stops — both rooted in emotional reaction, not lack of knowledge.
- "Hope mode" — moving stops lower when a trade goes against you — was common 25 years ago and remains equally common today.
- The difficulty is not learning rules; it is accepting uncertainty while maintaining confidence in a methodology that puts the odds in your favor.
Why AI Doesn't Solve the Discipline Problem
- Greg described the webinar's combined 25–30 years of experience as a form of "superintelligence" — yet even that cannot make a trader sitting in their chair follow what they're told.
- The proliferation of trading approaches (Stochastics, MACD, Moving Average Crossovers, Elliott Wave, Gann, Ichimoku, trend lines) creates a "tornado of thoughts" — the solution is committing to one methodology that puts the odds in your favor, not continuously sampling new ones.
- AI can identify support and resistance if trained correctly, but feeding it multiple conflicting frameworks produces the same confusion a human trader experiences.
Live Chart Analysis: SPY & SMH
Reading Price Patterns as Human Behavior
- Greg's approach frames every candle and pattern as a reflection of what other traders are experiencing emotionally — not as abstract data.
- The previous session's thesis: SMH gapping down to support would attract buyers. That played out perfectly. The follow-through thesis for the current session did not hold — support broke, stops were hit, and longs from the prior day were in shock.
- When a rising 20-MA support level and a reversal bar both fail, it signals that sellers have taken control and the path of least resistance is lower.
Defining Trend Objectively
- Trend definition must be black and white: higher highs and higher lows — not a rising moving average, which is subjective and changes depending on whether you use simple or exponential.
- Moving averages (50, 100, 200-day) are watched because institutions watch them, not because they are inherently precise reference points.
- SPY at the time of the session: still making higher highs and higher lows, therefore technically in an uptrend — but a short-term bearish situation created by news within that uptrend.
- Key lesson: always ask whether the timeframe you're analyzing is complete before drawing conclusions — an intraday bar that looks bearish mid-session may close as a bottoming tail bar.
Trader Pivot Lines
- For intraday traders on indices, trader pivot lines (decades-old tool) provide structured levels to buy or sell against — distinct from swing-based support/resistance but complementary.
- When a market gaps down through all pivot levels, the extent of the move limits actionable intraday entries; sometimes the correct action is no trade.
Poll Results: Hardest Rule to Follow
The live poll asked attendees which rule was hardest to follow. Results shaped the discussion:
- Most difficult (largest %): Waiting for my setup instead of chasing — patience and FOMO identified as the primary challenge.
- Second most difficult: Taking a loss when price hits my stop — the classic emotional barrier of accepting being wrong.
- Least difficult: Sticking to position size — the smallest percentage of respondents flagged this.
Deep Dive: Taking Stops
- The psychological barrier to taking stops stems from uncertainty — as price approaches a stop, the trader feels the impending confirmation of being wrong.
- Greg's reframe: if you don't take your stop, you risk losing everything and having to explain that to someone close to you — use that leverage against yourself to enforce the rule.
- Deron's reframe: you can always re-enter. 80–90% of the time, once a stop is hit, price continues in that direction — the setup is invalid. For the rare reversal, re-entering at a slightly higher price is acceptable because it offers higher-probability confirmation.
- With near-zero commissions today (vs. significant fees 25 years ago), the cost of exiting and re-entering is negligible — remove that as a reason to hold through a stop.
Deep Dive: Chasing & Patience
- Chasing is driven by FOMO — the feeling that a move has started and you're being left behind.
- Options when a move has already started: trade smaller size (reduces emotional pressure from being too exposed), or look for an intraday entry rather than a swing entry.
- Greg's rule: he will not short a stock that has already retraced significantly, even if he knows sellers are present — his trading plan doesn't allow it, and that boundary is non-negotiable.
- "Mirage trading" — placing trades that aren't part of your plan out of boredom during slow sessions — is a named failure mode Greg explicitly warns against. On slow days (e.g., Columbus Day with bank earnings pending), the correct action is to sit on hands and do nothing.
Greg's Trading Execution Habits
- Share size is calculated before pressing the button; stop is placed simultaneously with entry — no deliberation required in the moment.
- The only mid-trade adjustment Greg makes: if the trade is moving strongly in his favor, he may drag the target higher or sell half to lock in gains — he does not adjust stops downward.
- Greg has recently traded more bottoming patterns than usual given current market conditions, but takes profits quickly because these patterns carry "weak hands" eager to exit — he does not hold them like trend continuation setups.
- Live example during the session: a Microsoft call spread (sold 550 call, bought 555 call for $0.50 credit) was already near 50% profit (~$0.30) by session time — illustrating that counter-trend opportunities exist via options even in a bearish intraday environment.
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