This week’s Chart of the Week is about the biggest IPO of the decade.
You may not be able to buy the SpaceX IPO until it starts trading — and the price may rocket higher before most traders can react — but you can prepare for the opportunity. Several ETFs listed below with charts
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This week’s Chart of the Week is about the biggest IPO of the decade.
You may not be able to buy the SpaceX IPO until it starts trading — and the price may rocket higher before most traders can react — but you can prepare for the opportunity. Several ETFs listed below with charts already hold SpaceX privately, and our Memorial Day Specials give you the tools, education, and live guidance to trade this historic event with confidence.
SpaceX’s long‑anticipated IPO is widely expected to become the largest market debut in history, with valuation estimates ranging from $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Such scale positions the offering as a defining moment for public markets, index construction, and the future of both space infrastructure and AI‑driven industries.
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What Investors Expect From the SpaceX IPO
- Record‑breaking valuation — Analysts see potential for a $2T valuation, supported by SpaceX’s unmatched launch cadence, Starship’s cost‑reduction potential, and the company’s expanding AI and orbital‑compute ambitions.
- Starlink as the revenue engine — Starlink already generates more than half of SpaceX’s revenue and is projected to reach 70% by 2026 as global subscriber growth accelerates.
- AI expansion — SpaceX and xAI are investing heavily in orbital compute, with ~$20B deployed in 2025 and a total addressable market estimated at $28.5T across AI, global connectivity, and space‑based data infrastructure.
- Unusual insider lockups — SpaceX’s phased insider‑selling structure could increase float earlier than typical IPOs, potentially accelerating inclusion in major indices like the Nasdaq‑100.
What It May Mean for Markets
- Rapid index inclusion — Nasdaq’s “fast entry” rule could place SpaceX into the Nasdaq‑100 within 15 trading days, forcing index funds to buy billions in shares quickly.
- Mega‑cap concentration — At a $2T valuation, SpaceX would instantly join the ranks of the world’s largest companies, intensifying debates around index concentration and passive‑flow dominance.
- Supply shock—manageable — Despite the size of the offering, analysts such as Tom Lee argue that global pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices can absorb the new supply without destabilizing markets.
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SpaceX’s IPO is not just another listing — it’s a market‑shaping event. Its combination of space infrastructure, global broadband, and AI ambitions positions it to influence everything from index fund flows to the future of off‑planet computing.
For investors and policymakers alike, the IPO marks the beginning of a new era in which space, AI, and public markets intersect at an unprecedented scale.
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All the best
Greg Capra
