The S&P 500 Index closed up over 17% to date, its best first-half performance since 1997.  It gained 6.9% in June, its best June since 1955.

All eyes are on Trump’s meeting with China representatives over the trade tariffs to see if there will be a truce or escalation (and now also on Trump’s surprise visit to N. Korea!).

Barclays Capital sees a 45% chance of tariff escalation, which could send stocks down 7%; a 35% chance of a truce, which could send stocks up 10%; and a 20% chance of a recession, with a 20% market plunge.


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